A new credit scoring model — expected to roll out in fall 2017 — aims to more accurately measure credit risk by using more historical data and machine-learning techniques while culling less reliable information.
On Monday, VantageScore Solutions announced the release of the fourth version of its credit scoring model, to be used by the three national credit bureaus. (It may seem like these credit scoring models don’t change much, but they do update from time to time. You can find out 13 ways credit scores have changed in the past 20 years here.)
VantageScore 4.0 improves on its predecessor in three main ways, said Sarah Davies, senior vice president of product management and analytics for VantageScore. First, it looks at a consumer’s credit behavior over time, incorporating more of what’s known as “trended data.”
For example, the score takes into account how a consumer’s credit balance has changed over a period of months, rather than taking a single snapshot in time. This has made the score upwards of 20% more predictive than 3.0 for customers with good credit, Davies said.
The new model also excludes a lot of public record information, especially liens and judgments. In many cases, Davies said, this information was difficult to accurately link to individual consumers.
“In all likelihood, almost all civil judgments will be removed from credit files and a substantial portion of tax liens will be removed from credit files,” Davies said.
With this new model, medical collections won’t be reported on credit files until after six months have passed. That’s because there is often confusion as to whether the consumer or insurer is responsible for the payment, Davies said.
The third big update is the use of machine-learning techniques to help score consumers with thin credit files. VantageScore used large data-processing platforms to examine thousands and thousands of combinations of consumer behaviors to identify which ones were associated with people paying their bills on time.
Despite the high-tech method, this led to some intuitive conclusions, Davies said. For example, for consumers with big collections accounts, VantageScore was able to parse out that those who are looking for credit are higher risks than those who aren’t.
It seems obvious, but a human may not have identified this as a risk factor. Davies said the technique has made VantageScore 4.0 about 17% more predictive than its predecessor for people who haven’t used credit in the last six months and 30% more predictive for people who don’t have activity on any accounts, just collections.
What Leads to a Good Score?
VantageScore still rewards the same behavior as any other credit scoring model, Davies said. The model uses the same 300-to-850 scoring range familiar to many people. (You can find out more about what a good credit score consists of here.)
“You’ve still got to pay your bills on time,” she said. “You should still keep your credit card balances low. What this is going to do is look more thoroughly and holistically at some of the other pieces of data.”
VantageScore, which launched in 2006, claims to be able to assign scores to more than 30 million people than traditional models, like the widely used FICO score. The 4.0 version, however, will likely score about 500,000 fewer people than its predecessor because of the removal of many civil judgments and tax liens from credit files.
The removals are part of expected changes coming to credit reports as part of the National Consumer Assistance Plan, an effort by the three major credit reporting agencies expected to boost scores for many people. The agencies agreed to the plan in order to settle an investigation by 31 state attorneys general in 2015.
VantageScore vs. FICO
While Davies didn’t have numbers on how often VantageScore is used compared to FICO, she said VantageScore is increasingly popular. Version 3.0 was used 8 billion times in 2016, she said, up from 6 billion the prior year. (You can see your VantageScore 3.0 for free on Credit.com.)
More than 2,000 financial institutions use VantageScore and most credit issuers, she said. The fourth version of VantageScore has shown improvements in predicting mortgage risk, and Davies said the company hopes the new score will help them break into the mortgage market.
Davies said it would be naive to think that VantageScore could end the dominance of FICO, but the goal is to improve the scoring marketplace overall.
“The ideal world would be that we have meaningful market share, but that, more than anything, we’re an organization that’s about pushing all scoring organizations to deliver better products,” she said.
More from Credit.com
This article originally appeared on Credit.com.
Interested in a personal loan?Here are the top personal loan lenders of 2019!
|Lender||APR Range||Loan Amount|
|1 Includes AutoPay discount. Important Disclosures for SoFi.
2 Includes AutoPay discount. Important Disclosures for Opploans.
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Opploans currently operates in these states: . *Approval may take longer if additional verification documents are requested. Not all loan requests are approved. Approval and loan terms vary based on credit determination and state law. Applications processed and approved before 7:30 p.m. ET Monday-Friday are typically funded the next business day.
3 Includes AutoPay discount. Important Disclosures for Payoff.
4 Important Disclosures for FreedomPlus.
5 Important Disclosures for Citizens Bank.
Citizens Bank Disclosures
6 Important Disclosures for LendingPoint.
7 Important Disclosures for LendingClub.
All loans made by WebBank, Member FDIC. Your actual rate depends upon credit score, loan amount, loan term, and credit usage & history. The APR ranges from 6.95% to 35.89%*. The origination fee ranges from 1% to 6% of the original principal balance and is deducted from your loan proceeds. For example, you could receive a loan of $6,000 with an interest rate of 7.99% and a 5.00% origination fee of $300 for an APR of 11.51%. In this example, you will receive $5,700 and will make 36 monthly payments of $187.99. The total amount repayable will be $6,767.64. Your APR will be determined based on your credit at the time of application. The average origination fee is 5.49% as of Q1 2017. In Georgia, the minimum loan amount is $3,025. In Massachusetts, the minimum loan amount is $6,025 if your APR is greater than 12%. There is no down payment and there is never a prepayment penalty. Closing of your loan is contingent upon your agreement of all the required agreements and disclosures on the www.lendingclub.com website. All loans via LendingClub have a minimum repayment term of 36 months. Borrower must be a U.S. citizen, permanent resident or be in the United States on a valid long term visa and at least 18 years old. Valid bank account and Social Security number are required. Equal Housing Lender. All loans are subject to credit approval. LendingClub’s physical address is: LendingClub, 71 Stevenson Street, Suite 1000, San Francisco, CA 94105.
†Per reviews collected and authenticated by Bazaarvoice in compliance with the Bazaarvoice Authentication Requirements, supported by anti-fraud technology and human analysis. All reviews can be reviewed at reviews.lendingclub.com
**Based on approximately 60% of borrowers who received offers through LendingClub’s marketing partners between January 1, 2018 to July 20,2018. The time it will take to fund your loan may vary.
8 Important Disclosures for Earnest.
9 Important Disclosures for Avant.
*If approved, the actual loan terms that a customer qualifies for may vary based on credit determination, state law, and other factors. Minimum loan amounts vary by state.
**Example: A $5,900 loan with an administration fee of 4.75% and an amount financed of $5,619.75, repayable in 36 monthly installments, with an APR of 29.95% would have monthly payments of $250.30.
Based on the responses from 11,574 customers in a survey of 210,584 newly funded customers, conducted from 1 Feb 2018 – 1 Aug 2019 95.05% of customers stated that they were either extremely satisfied or satisfied with Avant. 4/5 Customers would recommend us. Avant branded credit products are issued by WebBank, member FDIC.
* Important Disclosures for Upgrade Bank.
Upgrade Bank Disclosures
* Personal loans made through Upgrade feature APRs of 6.98%-35.89%. All personal loans have a 1.5% to 6% origination fee, which is deducted from the loan proceeds. Lowest rates require Autopay and paying off a portion of existing debt directly. For example, if you receive a $10,000 loan with a 36-month term and a 17.98% APR (which includes a 14.32% yearly interest rate and a 5% one-time origination fee), you would receive $9,500 in your account and would have a required monthly payment of $343.33. Over the life of the loan, your payments would total $12,359.97. The APR on your loan may be higher or lower and your loan offers may not have multiple term lengths available. Actual rate depends on credit score, credit usage history, loan term, and other factors. Late payments or subsequent charges and fees may increase the cost of your fixed rate loan. There is no fee or penalty for repaying a loan early. Personal loans issued by WebBank, Member FDIC.
** Accept your loan offer and your funds will be sent to your bank via ACH within one (1) business day of clearing necessary verifications. Availability of the funds is dependent on how quickly your bank processes this transaction. From the time of approval, funds should be available within four (4) business days.
|5.99% – 17.88%1||$5,000 - $100,000|
|5.69% – 35.99%||$1,000 - $50,000|
|6.98% – 35.89%*||$1,000 - $50,000|
|99.00% – 199.00%2||$500 - $4,000|
|5.99% – 24.99%3||$5,000 - $35,000|
|5.99% – 29.99%4||$7,500 - $40,000|
|6.79% – 20.89%5||$5,000 - $50,000|
|15.49% – 35.99%6||$2,000 - $25,000|
|6.95% – 35.89%7||$1,000 - $40,000|
|5.99% – 17.24%8||$5,000 - $75,000|
|9.95% – 35.99%9||$2,000 - $35,000|